Israel, Miliband, and the values that motivate him

Ed Miliband’s patron Neil Kinnock knows only too well from his own pre-election snub by Ronald Reagan that attempts by leaders of the opposition to ‘look prime ministerial’ by jumping on a plane and pumping hands overseas are fraught with danger. It is all the more perilous if they land in the middle of a major diplomatic crisis.

As the reluctant traveller starts a three and a half day trip to the Middle East, Ed Miliband will be well aware that this is a place that has seen even the most accomplished politicians get tripped up.

But he also knows there is also the opportunity to highlight a more personal issue: the values that motivate him.

The Labour leader’s visit to Israel and Palestine, therefore, has a number objectives, from the personal to the political, as his team tries to sketch out more about the Miliband the man and his potential as a prime minister.

Like David Cameron’s recent visit, domestic events have conspired to make this trip happen later than was intended, and it has certainly been a source of concern among the foreign and development policy community and beyond that the Labour leader has spent so little time discussing international affairs at home or abroad.

What we have seen during the delay is confirmation that John Kerry’s latest push for a process, let alone peace, is in serious trouble. The reasons for this are still the source of ongoing debate and the state department was quick to deny any suggestion that the Americans put the blame at the doorstep of the government of Israel, even if that was the logical conclusion of the secretary of state’s recent remarks.

The American envoy, Martin Indyk, is still trying to bridge the gaps between the parties and will have a joint meeting with both negotiators in a few days’ time. But for now we are back in a holding pattern with the international community at risk of splintering along the traditional factional lines absent a credible process to hold them all together.

For Miliband at least this does mean the script is one we are sadly all too familiar with: a repeat of the desire to see the justice and dignity of Palestinian statehood alongside a secure state of Israel, a call for the parties to return to negotiations and for both sides to refrain from any activity (code for settlement-building or violence) that would make that harder.

The Labour leader has talked movingly in the past about his Jewish heritage and the impact the Holocaust has had on his family story. It clearly is part of what shapes him as a politician even if he has had a more ambiguous relationship with the Jewish faith. The visit to the kibbutz where his extended family are shows the best of those progressive values that shaped Miliband politically as well as the founding of the state of Israel.

However, that Labour tradition in Israel has taken a real battering in recent years as the party has sought to renew itself since the premiership of Ehud Barak and the failed Camp David negotiations all the way back in 2000. There will, therefore, be much in common to discuss when Miliband meets with the new Labour leader, Isaac Herzog, and much potential for a strengthening of that political alliance.

As for Miliband’s meetings with the current Israeli administration, it will be looking to ensure that he will have no truck with the boycott, divestment and sanctions agenda, while also stressing its belief in the existential threat that Iran still poses and a hope that the recent Syria vote is not a symbol of a Labour party that is going to be isolationist rather than interventionist.

On the Palestinian side, there will be appreciation that Miliband and Douglas Alexander, who is also on the trip, did not oppose the Palestinians’ moves for recognition at the United Nations and there will be a desire for that to be supported in the months ahead in the absence of a negotiated way forward.

As ever both sides will be looking for certain orthodoxies to be repeated and the media on both sides will be looking to jump on any deviation from the standard script.

But if Miliband is seen to be given access to the senior political leadership on both sides and handles such a complex issue competently, while also fleshing out more of his personal story, then the trip will have been well worth the effort.

This article first appeared on Progress Online.

 

Déjà-vu all over again: Middle East talks restart amidst low expectations

Déjà-vu all over again is an old John Prescott joke, but it seemed like an appropriate headline for my latest article for Progress about the Middle East, as the Israeli and Palestinian delegations sit down to dinner this evening in the ornate splendour of the eighth floor of the State Department.

Defying high expectations to provide Palestinians with the dignity of statehood, or Israelis with security and safety, is not going to be a challenge facing this latest diplomatic effort. Indeed, simply keeping the parties talking for longer than the short few weeks that the last abortive attempt managed in September 2010 will be seen by some as success. And that was before the tumult of the Arab Spring, including the chaos in Egypt and carnage in Syria. For US secretary of state John Kerry, success will mean resolving the core paradox between the negotiating room and the facts on the ground, keeping the process secret, and managing to keep the parties talking when the inevitable bumps in the road occur.

Secretary Kerry cannot be faulted for the personal vigour with which he has pursued this issue since taking office in January, working closely with Tony Blair. From Washington to Rome to Jerusalem, the two have repeatedly debated, discussed and decided how the old challenge of matching the aspirations of the negotiating room with the reality on the ground can be matched.

So what reason is there to believe this time may be different? The millions of Israelis and Palestinians, who would be the principal beneficiaries of any deal and who remain committed to a two-state solution but have lost faith in their political leaders, will not be sitting by the television waiting for a breaking news whoosh to indicate a deal.

That is no bad thing. Low-key talks, with the different parties not testing their ideas in the media, may well frustrate the media and those from the international community not in the room, but could probably be the best way to ensure the full potential of two viable states is realised.

Today’s meeting is therefore a welcome start. Only when we see the talks happening at a leadership level between prime minister Netanyahu and President Abbas should we start to think this isn’t just another episode in a long-running serial with a plot we’re all too familiar with. But in the meantime we should neither allow the cynicism of past failed attempts nor the weight of expectation to derail what will always be a very delicate starting point.

You can read the full article for Progress here

 

Let’s talk: making peace in the Middle East

Visitors to the West Wing are greeted by a series of ‘jumbos’ – giant photos of Barack Obama’s latest events and visits, carefully selected to show the power and personality of the US president.

There’s no doubting that his first trip to the Middle East in office – which concluded in the stunning surroundings of Petra at the weekend – will have generated some amazing images. But it will take some time to see if any results develop.

As someone who spent nearly five years travelling to the region, working for Tony Blair in his role as Quartet representative, it was fascinating to watch the statecraft before, during and after the visit.

But behind all the bonhomie for the cameras with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the US president still managed to deliver a very sharp message about the importance of getting moving with the Middle East peace process.

In his keynote speech to ‘the people of Israel’ – going for the Clinton–Blair tactic of reaching over the head of the deadlocked politicians to a wider audience – he combined a strong endorsement of Zionism with a powerful call for the justice and dignity of Palestinian statehood.

But what now? For too long both the Palestinian and Israeli politicians have been stuck in a narrative of: ‘I’m serious about peace, it’s just the other side isn’t.’

The fact is that there will only be a deal when the parties themselves want one, or feel enough heat from their people to achieve one. But that doesn’t mean simply crossing our fingers leaving them to it. Otherwise they would have got a deal already.

All analogies are flawed, but, as we saw in Northern Ireland, it requires intensive work, patience, creativity, time and ingenuity. If Obama’s trip is to bear fruit, the heavy-lifting will fall to someone who was a close student of that process, US secretary of state John Kerry, as well as one of its key participants, Tony Blair.

Now is the time to get negotiations started again and ensure we can take some new photos of Israelis and Palestinians living side by side in security and peace, because, in the words of Obama, ‘the only way for Israel to endure and thrive as a Jewish and democratic state is through the realisation of an independent and viable Palestine.’

You can read the full article for Progress here